Regime Dashboard

Favorable is the fitted state with higher average daily returns in the training window; Downside is the lower-return state. Neither label guarantees the sign of the next return.

Favorable and Downside describe the model state at each observation date. They are not forecasts of a fixed future return or trading instructions.

Unclassified means the model has not assigned a state, not a neutral market view. Missing trend data is Unavailable; Flat is an explicit trend result.

Early Repair is a SPY-only observation of recovery after prior damage while Jump remains Downside. It does not replace the main state or define an exit, holding period or allocation.